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Confidence isn't a sure thing, it's a self belief that you are correct. So if you take it out of context then it sounds like you have confirmation before you go search but the truth is its just a belief you're correct



con·fi·dence
ˈkänfədəns/
noun
the feeling or belief that one can rely on someone or something; firm trust.
"we had every confidence in the staff"
synonyms: trust, belief, faith, credence, conviction
"I have little confidence in these figures"
the state of feeling certain about the truth of something.
"it is not possible to say with confidence how much of the increase in sea levels is due to melting glaciers"
a feeling of self-assurance arising from one's appreciation of one's own abilities or qualities.
"she's brimming with confidence"
synonyms: self-assurance, self-confidence, self-possession, assertiveness; More
(11-07-2015, 09:43 AM)The White Knight Wrote: [ -> ]How can someone randomly solve the 1st clue without knowing it, together with randomly solving clues 2,3 and 4 that are contiguous with the 1st clue and with each other, without knowing it? Solving a significant number of clues (e.g. the first 4 clues) can't be achieved by chance.

With this logic the person could randomly solve all nine clues without knowing it and without identifying any common theme amongst them. Then, they could randomly pick up the chest without knowing they'd picked it up.

Indeed how does a Searcher 'move with confidence' to the location of the chest if they don't know they've solved any clues before they retrieve the chest? For the Searcher who finds the chest 'Nothing will be down to chance'.
Have you read some of the other threads on Chasechat that answers that conundrum that you ask about?

(11-07-2015, 11:46 AM)The White Knight Wrote: [ -> ]Forrest said a Searcher will 'move with CONFIDENCE' to the chest. That sounds like they're pretty sure of the clues they've solved and the path they're following. He said 'Nothing will be down to chance' and that solving the riddle will 'take a Searcher straight to the chest'.

He didn't say Searchers will have many random theories and only realise one of the theories is right by process of elimination when that one theory ends up at the chest. That's moving with no confidence at all.
Good luck with that. These thoughts have been discussed for a long time. Seems like you are way behind if you are just now getting around to these thoughts.

(11-07-2015, 11:49 AM)will197532 Wrote: [ -> ]Confidence isn't a sure thing, it's a self belief that you are correct. So if you take it out of context then it sounds like you have confirmation before you go search but the truth is its just a belief you're correct



con·fi·dence
ˈkänfədəns/
noun
the feeling or belief that one can rely on someone or something; firm trust.
"we had every confidence in the staff"
synonyms: trust, belief, faith, credence, conviction
"I have little confidence in these figures"
the state of feeling certain about the truth of something.
"it is not possible to say with confidence how much of the increase in sea levels is due to melting glaciers"
a feeling of self-assurance arising from one's appreciation of one's own abilities or qualities.
"she's brimming with confidence"
synonyms: self-assurance, self-confidence, self-possession, assertiveness; More

Great answer, Will.
(11-07-2015, 11:23 PM)fundamental design Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-07-2015, 09:43 AM)The White Knight Wrote: [ -> ]How can someone randomly solve the 1st clue without knowing it, together with randomly solving clues 2,3 and 4 that are contiguous with the 1st clue and with each other, without knowing it? Solving a significant number of clues (e.g. the first 4 clues) can't be achieved by chance.

With this logic the person could randomly solve all nine clues without knowing it and without identifying any common theme amongst them. Then, they could randomly pick up the chest without knowing they'd picked it up.

Indeed how does a Searcher 'move with confidence' to the location of the chest if they don't know they've solved any clues before they retrieve the chest? For the Searcher who finds the chest 'Nothing will be down to chance'.
Have you read some of the other threads on Chasechat that answers that conundrum that you ask about?

(11-07-2015, 11:46 AM)The White Knight Wrote: [ -> ]Forrest said a Searcher will 'move with CONFIDENCE' to the chest. That sounds like they're pretty sure of the clues they've solved and the path they're following. He said 'Nothing will be down to chance' and that solving the riddle will 'take a Searcher straight to the chest'.

He didn't say Searchers will have many random theories and only realise one of the theories is right by process of elimination when that one theory ends up at the chest. That's moving with no confidence at all.
Good luck with that. These thoughts have been discussed for a long time. Seems like you are way behind if you are just now getting around to these thoughts.

(11-07-2015, 11:49 AM)will197532 Wrote: [ -> ]Confidence isn't a sure thing, it's a self belief that you are correct. So if you take it out of context then it sounds like you have confirmation before you go search but the truth is its just a belief you're correct



con·fi·dence
ˈkänfədəns/
noun
the feeling or belief that one can rely on someone or something; firm trust.
"we had every confidence in the staff"
synonyms: trust, belief, faith, credence, conviction
"I have little confidence in these figures"
the state of feeling certain about the truth of something.
"it is not possible to say with confidence how much of the increase in sea levels is due to melting glaciers"
a feeling of self-assurance arising from one's appreciation of one's own abilities or qualities.
"she's brimming with confidence"
synonyms: self-assurance, self-confidence, self-possession, assertiveness; More

Great answer, Will.
could you explain that better please! Never mind I'm confident I understand!! Matter of fact I'm sure I understand!!

(11-07-2015, 11:37 PM)Woody Bogg Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-07-2015, 11:23 PM)fundamental design Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-07-2015, 09:43 AM)The White Knight Wrote: [ -> ]How can someone randomly solve the 1st clue without knowing it, together with randomly solving clues 2,3 and 4 that are contiguous with the 1st clue and with each other, without knowing it? Solving a significant number of clues (e.g. the first 4 clues) can't be achieved by chance.

With this logic the person could randomly solve all nine clues without knowing it and without identifying any common theme amongst them. Then, they could randomly pick up the chest without knowing they'd picked it up.

Indeed how does a Searcher 'move with confidence' to the location of the chest if they don't know they've solved any clues before they retrieve the chest? For the Searcher who finds the chest 'Nothing will be down to chance'.
Have you read some of the other threads on Chasechat that answers that conundrum that you ask about?

(11-07-2015, 11:46 AM)The White Knight Wrote: [ -> ]Forrest said a Searcher will 'move with CONFIDENCE' to the chest. That sounds like they're pretty sure of the clues they've solved and the path they're following. He said 'Nothing will be down to chance' and that solving the riddle will 'take a Searcher straight to the chest'.

He didn't say Searchers will have many random theories and only realise one of the theories is right by process of elimination when that one theory ends up at the chest. That's moving with no confidence at all.
Good luck with that. These thoughts have been discussed for a long time. Seems like you are way behind if you are just now getting around to these thoughts.

(11-07-2015, 11:49 AM)will197532 Wrote: [ -> ]Confidence isn't a sure thing, it's a self belief that you are correct. So if you take it out of context then it sounds like you have confirmation before you go search but the truth is its just a belief you're correct



con·fi·dence
ˈkänfədəns/
noun
the feeling or belief that one can rely on someone or something; firm trust.
"we had every confidence in the staff"
synonyms: trust, belief, faith, credence, conviction
"I have little confidence in these figures"
the state of feeling certain about the truth of something.
"it is not possible to say with confidence how much of the increase in sea levels is due to melting glaciers"
a feeling of self-assurance arising from one's appreciation of one's own abilities or qualities.
"she's brimming with confidence"
synonyms: self-assurance, self-confidence, self-possession, assertiveness; More

Great answer, Will.
could you explain that better please! Never mind I'm confident I understand!! Matter of fact I'm sure I understand!!
Sir are you confident you can get get a deer during hunting season . Yes Sir I've put one in the freezer for the last 10 years I'm confident I can get one. You sure are confident you might miss this year . No sir I already got one this year. Sure thing!!
(11-07-2015, 01:25 PM)Liv Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-06-2015, 03:36 PM)fundamental design Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-06-2015, 02:31 PM)The White Knight Wrote: [ -> ]You haven't tried to counter the logic that I've given above, so I don't quite see what you've debunked with your superior intellect.
I did counter the logic that you have above by clearly asking you when you will know for sure that your first clue is correct. And you replied that you already know. Then I asked you if you've seen Forrest's latest interview where he contradicts your logic/answer. You said no. Then I shared the link where it shows your solution, as you put it, as being illogical based on Forrest's statement that until someone finds the treasure they will not know for sure that they have the first clue right. Because I know everyone doesn't feel Forrest is being illogical. Case closed.

Fundamental,
Forrest's last quip was discussed here and I believe ThrillChaser put forth a pretty convincing explanation:

"Someone" is the one who finds the chest (and could be confident all the way for all we know), and "they" are the rest of us, who never knew we had the first clue right until "someone" found the treasure and explained it to everybody.

Hey Liv, good point to think about and I'll address it as ThrillChaser's. It is a possibity that this is the way to process ff's statement. But I do think this way is tenuous because of what's said in the next question and answer. The interviewer asks "Or THEY might have found it without realizing it?" And Forrest's reply is "Yes". Although it's the interviewer that uses the word THEY, THEY in this question can only mean the someone who finds the treasure and not the they that are all the rest of the searchers. Only the searcher who finds the treasure could find it without realizing it.

So, I think there is at least one other way for the searcher who finds the treasure to be confident but maybe not know for sure that they (he/she) had got the first clue correct. That's one of the million dollar questions that I focus on. Will's comments above help answer that question. Good job, Will.
It has only recently been confirmed that a Searcher has got 4 contiguous clues right. So it's been confirmed they have worked out the commonality within the answers to the 4 clues.

This solution is the one that will lead to the chest.

If that Searcher has developed the answers to the other 5 clues contiguous with the first 4 clues and answers based on the same commonality then they have worked out how to solve the riddle and this will be apparent to them.

If this isn’t the case then the Chase must then be a lottery - a door prize open to any Searcher amongst the throng who randomly try multiple solutions on the ground in the hope that one is correct.

The correct solution will lead a Searcher straight to the chest. So they will proceed with confidence before they set off. That is, a level of confidence they can’t have had with any alternative solution.

There can be no element of chance in identifying 9 clues and 9 answers with a common theme.

The successful Searcher will have ‘earned’ the chest. Earning it is solving the riddle precisely through multiple steps using a unique method, not by being the lucky person amongst the throng. As said, that’s a lottery. If a Searcher has identified several possibilities for solutions then they aren’t confident about any of them when putting feet on the ground.
*****
I think the response came from an interview with Italian media so the timing of the information he's given is only related to when he was asked the question.
(11-09-2015, 06:08 AM)The White Knight Wrote: [ -> ]It has only recently been confirmed that a Searcher has got 4 contiguous clues right. So it's been confirmed they have worked out the commonality within the answers to the 4 clues.

This solution is the one that will lead to the chest.

If that Searcher has developed the answers to the other 5 clues contiguous with the first 4 clues and answers based on the same commonality then they have worked out how to solve the riddle and this will be apparent to them.

If this isn’t the case then the Chase must then be a lottery - a door prize open to any Searcher amongst the throng who randomly try multiple solutions on the ground in the hope that one is correct.

The correct solution will lead a Searcher straight to the chest. So they will proceed with confidence before they set off. That is, a level of confidence they can’t have had with any alternative solution.

There can be no element of chance in identifying 9 clues and 9 answers with a common theme.

The successful Searcher will have ‘earned’ the chest. Earning it is solving the riddle precisely through multiple steps using a unique method, not by being the lucky person amongst the throng. As said, that’s a lottery. If a Searcher has identified several possibilities for solutions then they aren’t confident about any of them when putting feet on the ground.

So your illogical solution based on ff's recent Italian interview statements and how you described your own solution will be the one that sends a searcher confidently to the tc....
I don't think I can be more logical in the solution that I've published or the statements I've written above. Yes, I believe this solution will lead a Searcher to the chest. I've provided a lot of information that I believe gets them close to it already.
You tripped up when you said that you knew for sure your first clue was correct. Then proceeded to call your solution illogical based on that fact. You haven't show any evidence that you have recovered from that conundrum. I'm waiting for that evidence....extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence....

That's the thing with the Chase. Once in a rare moment new information comes out from Forrest that can blast a solution. Your solution suffered from that fate.
With your first clue being illogical, that is a big problem.
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