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The raft.

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(01-31-2016, 10:50 AM)TwistedAnkle Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-31-2016, 10:36 AM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-31-2016, 09:44 AM)TwistedAnkle Wrote: [ -> ]3rd – which direction? It looks to me (at least from 2,000 miles away using Google Earth) North along river. I have waders on, and just maybe someone else might come down the river. And North is at least toward my car, I would have seen the terrain on the way down, versus the unknowns downriver.

Interesting you say that. Bob Moore is one man who knows the area as well as anyone: WAY better than I know it. He lived down there for 10 months when he was 17. He is 60 now. North on the east bank is what Bob says is he would do in that situation. There is a brutally dangerous section between Frijoles and the top of Ancho Rapid. SAR didn't search that section because they considered it impossible. Bob has done it. He describes it as "boulder hopping". I can't tell you how frikkin' dangerous "boulder hopping" is. I'll put some pictures in here in a little bit. Once you make it to the top of Ancho rapid it is smooth sailing all the way to the car.
Maybe it is viewed as impossible, and maybe it actually is, but in a life and death situation you would have to try. The more I think about Leo though, I tend to move more toward somewhere in Frijoles canyon. Two possible thought processes would have taken him there : 1-that's where the treasure is (years ago it appears that it was walkable from FF parked car? and 2-if it was emergency, he may have thought he could navigate through it to the visitor center or road. He may have been carrying a detailed map of this canyon, to help find treasure, so it would be his best shot out. In these cases I can see Leo eventually going back to the raft (water?, help?). If however, Randy went upstream along the Rio, wouldn't Leo have bedded down nearer him?
Something that is "dangerous" and "impossible" makes sense to us as risk averse observers, but we are dealing with someone that went missing. In SAR, the incident that caused the distress situation is normally linked to situations where the person put them selves in that dangerous or impossible situations.
Thus in SAR, those kind of situations become more realistic, but must to be balanced by the fact that Randy and that dog are attached at the hip.
(01-31-2016, 10:50 AM)TwistedAnkle Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe it is viewed as impossible, and maybe it actually is, but in a life and death situation you would have to try. The more I think about Leo though, I tend to move more toward somewhere in Frijoles canyon. Two possible thought processes would have taken him there : 1-that's where the treasure is (years ago it appears that it was walkable from FF parked car? and 2-if it was emergency, he may have thought he could navigate through it to the visitor center or road. He may have been carrying a detailed map of this canyon, to help find treasure, so it would be his best shot out. In these cases I can see Leo eventually going back to the raft (water?, help?). If however, Randy went upstream along the Rio, wouldn't Leo have bedded down nearer him?

I don't think much about Leo, but only of the possible routes. Upstream on the east bank is Bob Moore's favorite route and it hasn't been searched. We don't know how Leo got to the raft. I don't do the whole yarn spinning thing because I don't see any point to it. You can spin yarns that separate an injured or dead Randy from Leo. Randy falls and breaks a leg and drops Leo who then rolls/slides down hill 10-20 feet and is uninjured. Now he can't get to Randy.

In any event, the route that the guy who I think knows the river as well or better than anyone says he would have taken hasn't been searched on the ground. It has to be searched on the ground.

I don't think FF could have walked from the visitor's center to the falls twice in an afternoon but I could understand someone else thinking that.
Just woke up. Need to find food and my transfer cable for my camera to get the videos and photos out to you all.

To answer some quick questions... There is a VERY tempting path on the east side that heads upstream but all movement on that shore is slow due to the vegetation.

FF Seeker's first attempt to cross the river ended with him almost neck deep in the main channel even after scouting from up high and along the shore line...and let me tell you this guy wasn't overstating his river skills and knowledge - he's damn good and I was quite impressed.

The "quicksand" is definitely an issue near the shore line and sand bars. It's not the deadly kind that sucks you down, but it is enough to grab your footware and can lead to a twisted ankle or wrenched knee or even a river faceplant.

FF Seeker estimated at some places the main channel was flowing at about 3 miles per hour. But the biggest issue was the cold. He had a 4mm wetsuit (most box store wetsuits are 1.5-3mm) and thinks the absolute maximum for dealing with the river temp is about 20 minutes. I had neoprene booties and was only in the shallows but my feet were almost frozen after just a few minutes. If you didn't have a warm day and direct sun to dry off in it would be a bad scenario.
this is from the raft heading downstream to the southern canyon. The canyon shots begin to show how difficult that terrain is.

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Ruin 1

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Ruin 2

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Ruin 3

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Ruin 4

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Ruin 5

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Heading to Canyon from Raft 1

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Heading to Canyon from Raft 2

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Heading to Canyon from Raft 3

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"Water" Fall in Canyon. My boy made it to the bottom of this fall. I stopped because it was too hard.

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The ground in the canyon

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Looking down the canyon

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More canyon ground

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More canyon ground

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Cairn in the canyon

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Looking up towards Frijoles from the canyon.

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FFseeker wading in the Rio Bravo del Norte.
(01-31-2016, 11:36 AM)DaisyMae Wrote: [ -> ]Just woke up. Need to find food and my transfer cable for my camera to get the videos and photos out to you all.

To answer some quick questions... There is a VERY tempting path on the east side that heads upstream but all movement on that shore is slow due to the vegetation.

FF Seeker's first attempt to cross the river ended with him almost neck deep in the main channel even after scouting from up high and along the shore line...and let me tell you this guy wasn't overstating his river skills and knowledge - he's damn good and I was quite impressed.

The "quicksand" is definitely an issue near the shore line and sand bars. It's not the deadly kind that sucks you down, but it is enough to grab your footware and can lead to a twisted ankle or wrenched knee or even a river faceplant.

FF Seeker estimated at some places the main channel was flowing at about 3 miles per hour. But the biggest issue was the cold. He had a 4mm wetsuit (most box store wetsuits are 1.5-3mm) and thinks the absolute maximum for dealing with the river temp is about 20 minutes. I had neoprene booties and was only in the shallows but my feet were almost frozen after just a few minutes. If you didn't have a warm day and direct sun to dry off in it would be a bad scenario.
This is very valuable information Daisey! Once again awesome work! FFSeeker is one crazy and brave dude. He has confirmed my suspicion from the high altitude photos that there was a deeper channel. Any attempt by a less experienced person with a heavy backpack could easily fall and not be able to surface for air.

Fenn said Randy's plan bewilders him. I on the other hand understand what Randy might have been thinking and although hard to believe from an outsider, when one considers the poems words: "Worth the cold", "brave and in the wood," "no paddle up your creek", "water high", "heavy loads", "no place for the meek", "home of Brown", "I've done it tired". Coupled with Fenn's confirmation that the "treasure is wet" and his implied definition of too far to walk being 10 river miles that he related to he himself rafting down a river in a dingy as described in his book "too far to walk".

I am not bewildered at all, from the poem's description this is the kind of imaginative adventures I continue to read and shriek. There will be more until Fenn clarifies this further. He did it for a mine, I am sure he will see the light and do it again to rule out these type of scenarios.
@Daisy wow that is great info on the river and the cold and how deep it was in spots. Randy may have been in and out of the boat pulling it some sections so he must have been cold. And it was 30 degrees and overcast that day, and humid, a wet cold.

Here are some photos of the Rio between Frijoles and Ancho Rapids from yesterday. I was looking with binoculars along the river edge, but what I could see is no different than the helicopters so if he is there he probably isn't in the open.
https://flic.kr/p/Dv9xm3
https://flic.kr/p/Dw3KtK
https://flic.kr/p/CGVnoF
https://flic.kr/p/DBZM4y
(01-31-2016, 12:19 PM)JulieLp12 Wrote: [ -> ]@Daisy wow that is great info on the river and the cold. Randy may have been in and out of the boat pulling it some sections so he must have been cold. And it was 30 degrees and overcast that day, and humid.

Here are some photos of the Rio between Frijoles and Ancho Rapids from yesterday. I was looking with binoculars along the river edge, but what I could see is no different than the helicopters so if he is there he probably isn't in the open.
https://flic.kr/p/Dv9xm3
https://flic.kr/p/Dw3KtK
https://flic.kr/p/CGVnoF
https://flic.kr/p/DBZM4y

He shouldn't have needed to pull it much if at all upstream of Frijoles canyon. Only way he'd need to pull it would be to get it off a rock or something.

(01-31-2016, 11:36 AM)DaisyMae Wrote: [ -> ]Just woke up. Need to find food and my transfer cable for my camera to get the videos and photos out to you all.

To answer some quick questions... There is a VERY tempting path on the east side that heads upstream but all movement on that shore is slow due to the vegetation.

FF Seeker's first attempt to cross the river ended with him almost neck deep in the main channel even after scouting from up high and along the shore line...and let me tell you this guy wasn't overstating his river skills and knowledge - he's damn good and I was quite impressed.

The "quicksand" is definitely an issue near the shore line and sand bars. It's not the deadly kind that sucks you down, but it is enough to grab your footware and can lead to a twisted ankle or wrenched knee or even a river faceplant.

FF Seeker estimated at some places the main channel was flowing at about 3 miles per hour. But the biggest issue was the cold. He had a 4mm wetsuit (most box store wetsuits are 1.5-3mm) and thinks the absolute maximum for dealing with the river temp is about 20 minutes. I had neoprene booties and was only in the shallows but my feet were almost frozen after just a few minutes. If you didn't have a warm day and direct sun to dry off in it would be a bad scenario.

The tempting route takes you either to Chaquehui Canyon (govt property), Ancho Canyon (searched by Project Why on the ground and Forrest and me by air), or Red Dot trail into Pajarito Acres. Or you can go upstream on the west bank and then cross the river somewhere upstream of Ancho. I'm pretty sure my boy and Bob Moore know a way to cross the river upstream of Ancho. Problem with this is that the river banks on both sides have been heavily searched from Buckman Crossing down except for the east bank section between Frijoles and the top of Ancho rapid (and possibly the west bank section between Ancho and Frijoles). I'm not sure about the west bank piece between Ancho and Frijoles. I never talked to SAR Bob about that.
This is FFseeker posting. I have giving up looking for FF's on trees, so I switched my name. I live close to Indianapolis so the name makes sense.

For me the terrain was the biggest problem and the lack of any real trail would make it impossible in the snow. What John calls a trail, I would call a few weeds that have been stomped on while someone scrambled up the hill side.

BTW - Thanks John for marking the trail for us as there's zero chance I would have found it. Then again I get lost on every search, so it's not a Fenn search unless I'm lost in the wilderness. I warned Daisymae that the path would not be direct for the two of us who had no certainty of the location beforehand, but sure for all the others who did. LOL.
I couldn't tell from John Brown's photos of the raft if both oar locks were still in operational shape. We can see one oar lock in some of the photos and it looks to be in operational shape. What about the other one? Also, any pictures of the broken oar? These answers might not go to which direction Randy took last but could go towards the timeline Randy had left before it got dark out.