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(02-01-2016, 09:11 AM)TwistedAnkle Wrote: [ -> ]Can anyone who was in the raft area recently, (or has a good level of experience and is following this closely) put up your estimate as to whether Randy would have felt a need to abandon the search upon arriving at raft location. Given time of day, broken oar, frigid water, damaged raft, his state of mind (stressed?) etc. How long would it take to continue rafting downriver to some rescue or exit point? would that raft have made it? Would he have been so cold that rafting on was not an option? Anyway, from what you see, what % would you apply to search vs abandon and get to safety without searching for the treasure?

From the raft to the lake is a long slow haul. In my opinion he would almost certainly have died of hypothermia if he had boated downstream. The shallow river and muddy bottom are no fun in the summer. You nearly always have to get out somewhere and pull the boat. In winter that would be deadly. The raft could have handled the trip except for the ice. He would have probably had to ditch the boat when it hit the ice. I have no idea if he knew about the ice or not.

You might consider doing an internet search about that stretch of water. I know what it's like from experience. I have no idea what the internet says about it. Randy would most likely have learned most everything from the internet.

I've kind of assumed the boat was found at his planned take out.
(02-01-2016, 09:11 AM)TwistedAnkle Wrote: [ -> ]Can anyone who was in the raft area recently, (or has a good level of experience and is following this closely) put up your estimate as to whether Randy would have felt a need to abandon the search upon arriving at raft location. Given time of day, broken oar, frigid water, damaged raft, his state of mind (stressed?) etc. How long would it take to continue rafting downriver to some rescue or exit point? would that raft have made it? Would he have been so cold that rafting on was not an option? Anyway, from what you see, what % would you apply to search vs abandon and get to safety without searching for the treasure?

It's so difficult to say on the raft. The raft was re-inflated with an electric pump (similar to an air mattress pump), it did hold air for long enough to boat, but might need to be refilled every hour. With the foot pump it would have been exhausting to pump up the main chamber every hour.

I really believe it comes down to whether he's wet or not. If he's wet then he might have felt the need to get out asap, but if he's dry I would have stayed with the boat and continued.

Myself and Daisymae hiked out with heavy packs on and it took 2.5 hrs to make the rim (you spend significant time trying to find the trail.) I would say with 1" on snow on the ground that 4 hours would be an amazing climb and even though there are some that can do it faster (like John Brown), the rest of us would struggle because the trail is difficult to find anyway and impossible in the snow. It's 1000' up loose scree, cactus (with huge needles), juniper bushes etc... Now add 1" of ice/snow and I wouldn't even attempt such a climb unless it was my last resort. (it's a steep climb and dangerous in the snow)

Even once on the rim, it's 15 more miles of confusing roads if you stay on the road. If you try off the road the loose rocks are difficult to walk on. They aren't small rocks, but hundreds of 6" to 12" rocks that would be hard to walk through. (and the many cactus have huge needles that can puncture your shoe and would be hidden by the snow.)

The river flow is decent enough to get you to the lake in another 2-3 hours. My only guess for why he didn't try it is that he got wet. Maybe while trying to cross after searching Frijoles or coming through Ancho rapid. Something changed at that location, but there is one thing to consider that might have been missed and it's the rafts location. The raft was pulled into a protective cove 150' from the river.

He obviously pulled the raft up into the cove before he did anything else, so he planned to either spend the night or abandon the raft. Spending the night is a possibility because the raft was next to a large rock that would provide shelter from a down-steam wind. (You wouldn't pull the raft that far from the river if you planned on searching Frijoles and then continuing downstream.)

After trying to walk upstream in my wetsuit and failing, I think it's impossible to walk up or down stream in waders. It gets too deep at spots and the banks are full of bushes and this awful mud that takes significant energy to walk through. The mud was probably frozen, but maybe not solidly enough to avoid getting your foot stuck in it at spots.
Imagine nine miles of going in/out of the water, onto the bank when the water is too deep, and doing this over and over in a 20 Deg storm. It would take 2 days of good weather and lots of energy bars to make 9 miles in that muck and I couldn't do it. I admit to being unable to do such a feat. I'm not 25 anymore and my body just can't cash the checks my mind wants to write.

The river offers a float and the lowest energy usage to civilization and yet he didn't even try it. The most pertinent question is where is the car once you finish the float. No one floats down an icy river in January to a frozen lake without a waiting car. They also don't try a 1000' climb and 15 mile hike back to the car in that terrain and weather (and only give themselves 3-4 hrs to do it). Both scenarios are impossible without the proper gear to spend several nights out there.

I consider that terrain to be some of the hardest hiking I've ever done because of the steep angle, loose rock, juniper bushes and cactus etc... Maybe John Coulter or Hugh Glass could make such a trip, but there aren't many who could.

All of this is IMO and very speculative. I guess my choice is none of the above. So what's left?
___________
Sometimes you have to know the person to understand their preference for risk. I can honestly say the least risky thing I did on Saturday was cross that river. I consider the hike to have been much more dangerous and above my comfort level for hiking. But most would be the opposite.

Who was Randy and what did normally do for fun. Was he an avid hiker and capable of a long hikes in horrible conditions (I bet John Brown would have a chance to make it to the car at Buckman) or was he a person who spends his time on rivers and would have figured the river offers him a better chance. (I bet I have a chance to have made it to my car at the lake if I was not wet. But if wet then I have no chance)

We each have talents and you have to stick with what you know and feel comfortable doing. (and have the right gear to do it!)
Using the poem could help. Randy must have had a precise place in mind.
(02-01-2016, 05:49 AM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2016, 05:10 AM)Ginger Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-31-2016, 10:43 PM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-31-2016, 06:00 PM)samsmith Wrote: [ -> ].Sorry John, but the selfie was from the WEST rim S of White Rock...


misunderstood my wife. what care the coordinates you have for the selfie?



Selfie taken from here:
Dropped Pin

https://goo.gl/maps/65XojpzBLYp

I have other pictures he took that look like Ancho canyon to me which jibes, but aren't there ruins to the left of his head in the selfie? It's not clear but it looks like ruins at the left edge of the frame slightly above the mid point?


Yes, it looks like ruins to me too. I can see them on my maps. It's hard because you have to be at just the right zoom. Close enough to see, but too close and it starts to disappear. I'll try to get a good screen shot of it. BRB
(02-01-2016, 10:38 AM)Indy Wrote: [ -> ]All of this is IMO and very speculative. I guess my choice is none of the above. So what's left?
___________
Sometimes you have to know the person to understand their preference for risk. I can honestly say the least risky thing I did on Saturday was cross that river. I consider the hike to have been much more dangerous and above my comfort level for hiking. But most would be the opposite.

Who was Randy and what did normally do for fun. Was he an avid hiker and capable of a long hikes in horrible conditions (I bet John Brown would have a chance to make it to the car at Buckman) or was he a person who spends his time on rivers and would have figured the river offers him a better chance. (I bet I have a chance to have made it to my car at the lake if I was not wet. But if wet then I have no chance)

We each have talents and you have to stick with what you know and feel comfortable doing. (and have the right gear to do it!)

What isn't speculative are the set of likely routes out. East Bank, West Bank, downstream. West Bank and downstream start off with a check mark against them since the raft was on the east bank. The river has been searched by boat and air from Buckman to the ice at Cochiti. This lowers the downstream odds further still. SAR searched the main west bank from Buckman to Frijoles. Nora (Project Why) searched Ancho on foot. I searched it by air. There are other west bank trails to civilization Red Dot and Blue Dot trails which have likely been hiked by locals since then. They are lower probability in any event because he'd have had to walk past Ancho where he'd already hiked to get to them. Of course the east bank location of the boat is a mark against the west bank to begin with. That leaves the east bank. There are three east bank routes: (1)east bank on the river, (2)rim to Buckman by road, (3)rim to Buckman cross country.

If he planned on either 2 or 3 I don't think he made it to the rim. There is the Leo problem for one thing. I don't know why Leo would return to the raft from the rim. There is water on the rim. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that he is in between the rim and raft as a large number of people have scrambled on those slopes, including SAR. I think I'd have done the trail we used Saturday but Bob Moore who knows that place like the back of his hand said (1) would have been his chosen route because once you clear the dangerous boulder hopping stuff between Frijoles and the top of Ancho rapid it is an easy walk to the car. The boulder-hopping section has been searched from the river and air but NOT from the ground. I keep a sort of thermal mental probability map if the search. Given the facts, (1) is burning hot now. (1) is dangerous not because it requires technical rock climbing ability but because it is brutal rugged terrain and is very easy to get hurt in*. If he started on (1) and was injured early Leo would likely have had to return to the river because there would be little/no water on the rock. He could easily have had a fall that ended up with Leo below him and unable to reach him. (1) would be very slow going and Randy would likely have been at least a little impatient. Impatience kills.

*I think the canyon Sam and I went into Saturday is similar. At one point I fell 3' into the arroyo at the bottom of the canyon because the rock I was standing flat-footed on decided to crumble. I caught my fall with my bad hand but was otherwise uninjured. Could just as easily have broken a leg.

ADDED: SAR searched most of the east bank except for (1).

(02-01-2016, 02:58 PM)Ginger Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2016, 05:49 AM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2016, 05:10 AM)Ginger Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-31-2016, 10:43 PM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-31-2016, 06:00 PM)samsmith Wrote: [ -> ].Sorry John, but the selfie was from the WEST rim S of White Rock...


misunderstood my wife. what care the coordinates you have for the selfie?



Selfie taken from here:
Dropped Pin

https://goo.gl/maps/65XojpzBLYp

I have other pictures he took that look like Ancho canyon to me which jibes, but aren't there ruins to the left of his head in the selfie? It's not clear but it looks like ruins at the left edge of the frame slightly above the mid point?


Yes, it looks like ruins to me too. I can see them on my maps. It's hard because you have to be at just the right zoom. Close enough to see, but too close and it starts to disappear. I'll try to get a good screen shot of it. BRB

And those ruins are in Ancho Canyon? I don't remember any but I'm getting old.
(02-01-2016, 02:58 PM)Ginger Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2016, 05:49 AM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2016, 05:10 AM)Ginger Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-31-2016, 10:43 PM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]misunderstood my wife. what care the coordinates you have for the selfie?



Selfie taken from here:
Dropped Pin

https://goo.gl/maps/65XojpzBLYp

I have other pictures he took that look like Ancho canyon to me which jibes, but aren't there ruins to the left of his head in the selfie? It's not clear but it looks like ruins at the left edge of the frame slightly above the mid point?


Yes, it looks like ruins to me too. I can see them on my maps. It's hard because you have to be at just the right zoom. Close enough to see, but too close and it starts to disappear. I'll try to get a good screen shot of it. BRB

And those ruins are in Ancho Canyon? I don't remember any but I'm getting old.
[/quote]


Sorry, baby woke up and my computer has decided to be a B today. I had recreated the selfie on Google Earth pro, but for some reason it won't save, so I screen shot on my phone.
I'm not sure if this is Ancho Canyon since Ancho Spring is off to the south, but this is the ruin in Randy's selfie.

Zoomed out:
[Image: b874no.png]

Zoomed in:
[Image: 10qvwxc.png]

*These aren't working. Sorry, I'll edit.
(02-01-2016, 03:51 PM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2016, 10:38 AM)Indy Wrote: [ -> ]All of this is IMO and very speculative. I guess my choice is none of the above. So what's left?
___________
Sometimes you have to know the person to understand their preference for risk. I can honestly say the least risky thing I did on Saturday was cross that river. I consider the hike to have been much more dangerous and above my comfort level for hiking. But most would be the opposite.

Who was Randy and what did normally do for fun. Was he an avid hiker and capable of a long hikes in horrible conditions (I bet John Brown would have a chance to make it to the car at Buckman) or was he a person who spends his time on rivers and would have figured the river offers him a better chance. (I bet I have a chance to have made it to my car at the lake if I was not wet. But if wet then I have no chance)

We each have talents and you have to stick with what you know and feel comfortable doing. (and have the right gear to do it!)

What isn't speculative are the set of likely routes out. East Bank, West Bank, downstream. West Bank and downstream start off with a check mark against them since the raft was on the east bank. The river has been searched by boat and air from Buckman to the ice at Cochiti. This lowers the downstream odds further still. SAR searched the main west bank from Buckman to Frijoles. Nora (Project Why) searched Ancho on foot. I searched it by air. There are other west bank trails to civilization Red Dot and Blue Dot trails which have likely been hiked by locals since then. They are lower probability in any event because he'd have had to walk past Ancho where he'd already hiked to get to them. Of course the east bank location of the boat is a mark against the west bank to begin with. That leaves the east bank. There are three east bank routes: (1)east bank on the river, (2)rim to Buckman by road, (3)rim to Buckman cross country.

If he planned on either 2 or 3 I don't think he made it to the rim. There is the Leo problem for one thing. I don't know why Leo would return to the raft from the rim. There is water on the rim. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that he is in between the rim and raft as a large number of people have scrambled on those slopes, including SAR. I think I'd have done the trail we used Saturday but Bob Moore who knows that place like the back of his hand said (1) would have been his chosen route because once you clear the dangerous boulder hopping stuff between Frijoles and the top of Ancho rapid it is an easy walk to the car. The boulder-hopping section has been searched from the river and air but NOT from the ground. I keep a sort of thermal mental probability map if the search. Given the facts, (1) is burning hot now. (1) is dangerous not because it requires technical rock climbing ability but because it is brutal rugged terrain and is very easy to get hurt in*. If he started on (1) and was injured early Leo would likely have had to return to the river because there would be little/no water on the rock. He could easily have had a fall that ended up with Leo below him and unable to reach him. (1) would be very slow going and Randy would likely have been at least a little impatient. Impatience kills.

*I think the canyon Sam and I went into Saturday is similar. At one point I fell 3' into the arroyo at the bottom of the canyon because the rock I was standing flat-footed on decided to crumble. I caught my fall with my bad hand but was otherwise uninjured. Could just as easily have broken a leg.

ADDED: SAR searched most of the east bank except for (1).

(02-01-2016, 02:58 PM)Ginger Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2016, 05:49 AM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2016, 05:10 AM)Ginger Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-31-2016, 10:43 PM)John Brown Wrote: [ -> ]misunderstood my wife. what care the coordinates you have for the selfie?



Selfie taken from here:
Dropped Pin

https://goo.gl/maps/65XojpzBLYp

I have other pictures he took that look like Ancho canyon to me which jibes, but aren't there ruins to the left of his head in the selfie? It's not clear but it looks like ruins at the left edge of the frame slightly above the mid point?


Yes, it looks like ruins to me too. I can see them on my maps. It's hard because you have to be at just the right zoom. Close enough to see, but too close and it starts to disappear. I'll try to get a good screen shot of it. BRB

And those ruins are in Ancho Canyon? I don't remember any but I'm getting old.


I agree with your #1 search area. Up river on the east bank with a little exploration up the hill in anything that might look like an escape route from down there. I don't know if I can make it back down there on Saturday but if I can I would be glad to join you. Maybe a larger group can cover all the possibilities without slowing down too much.

There is one other possibility but it's a stretch. The 5th X, Arroyo Eighteen. If Randy had tried the "south exit", the one we checked out this weekend with the drone and you checked from below, and found it impassable maybe he would head south for what looks like an easier climb out. I don't know if that has been looked at at all and it does look like a stretch but if he went in prepared for an overnight stay and his other routes failed it begins to look possible.
The pin is placed just above the ruin.

Zoom out:
http://tinypic.com/r/smr3vn/9
White rock in the bottom left.

Zoom in:
http://tinypic.com/r/97k5c1/9

Larsonist

(02-01-2016, 05:53 PM)Ginger Wrote: [ -> ]The pin is placed just above the ruin.

Zoom out:
http://tinypic.com/r/smr3vn/9
White rock in the bottom left.

Zoom in:
http://tinypic.com/r/97k5c1/9

Ginger, is this a recognized ruin? I'm used to seeing rectangular outlines of walls, or round kiva remains. Not seeing those features here. Do you think Randy was here looking at them, or perhaps Ancho Canyon as an area for exploration?
Larsonist,
Randy took his selfie from here. That is the ruin in the background to the left of his head. If you can't make it out, I can outline it.

Outlined rectangle with a circle inside. There is more rubble, but these shapes are distinguishable.

http://tinypic.com/r/2jg2hk0/9