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The trouble with confidence...
06-13-2019, 09:30 AM,
#21
RE: The trouble with confidence...
(06-12-2019, 10:12 PM)crazyfamily Wrote: So, three searchers who are current or former members of this blog have the same solution and none of the three have picked up the chest? Is that right.

Whoa. Hold your horses there. My solutions have absolutely nothing to do with DT's. Yes, he may be using UV, and I admit to being the primary poster about that on Chasechat (related to past solves). Other than that, I doubt there is any other similarity between how I am solving the clues and DT.

On the other hand, I have always been an advocate that blog posters' ideas can stimulate a searcher into solving a clue, even if the idea presented has no applicability, or is very, very indirect to what it has stimulated. Most of us have accumulated hundreds of pieces (hints, TTOTC phrases, map interpretations, etc., etc.) in our own jigsaw puzzle of a solution. How they all fit together (or don't) is unique to each searcher, in my opinion.

As an example, I have never used "space portals" in my solves, and am not fully certain what one searcher means by that. However, there is a certain aspect of my current solve that could easily relate to the concept, and even support it. I don't need it, but it has made me think about the possibility of a second or third one that, if discovered, could give me more confidence in my current solve, or perhaps even modify it.
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06-13-2019, 02:53 PM,
#22
RE: The trouble with confidence...
@Mindy
Has anyone noticed the poem in the book is not truly centered, although it looks like it is? It’s justified right, but not perfectly. Maybe no one is getting it right because they’re copying the poem down wrong.

"bole firs" is what I got that way Mindy. Maybe "behold ivy urns" or "behold ivy runs". I guess that is a small hint? I abandoned the process.
Thanks Mindy...I meant that in a good way; hehe, haha, hoho, lol...
just saying ss
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06-13-2019, 03:43 PM, (This post was last modified: 06-13-2019, 03:47 PM by Chris Yates.)
#23
RE: The trouble with confidence...
(06-12-2019, 09:10 AM)crazyfamily Wrote: Now, I’m skeptical of Yates solution, for sure. Forrest said that many had solved the first clue, so I have a hard time believing that “many” have done what Yates did to that poem.

many people have found the first clue but they didn’t know it

f said the "many" people who identified the correct first clue, didn't know it was correct

so this means that they were guessing. they guessed correctly, but they don't know they are/were correct

this then further means that whatever approach, or correct way of solving/deciphering the first clue, this isn't what the "many" have done

so your stated conclusion that the "many" would have had to have done the same thing as what I did to the poem, is not correct (hypothetically considering if my approach were correct)

on a side note, the first clue that i've deciphered, which personally i feel certain i am correct, is something that "many" could guess correctly, but not be sure about it

it is a specific geographic point known by most anyone involved in this hunt. and it could be pointed out on a map of the entire Rockies

and while it could be guessed at, because it is something that a lot of people could think of, and is nothing obscure or abstract, it would be difficult to be sure of it without extracting the clue identification from the poem.

i know if i said it out loud, many searchers would assume out of personal bias for what they think WWWH is, that it isn't correct
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06-13-2019, 04:18 PM,
#24
The trouble with confidence...
(06-13-2019, 03:43 PM)Chris Yates Wrote:
(06-12-2019, 09:10 AM)crazyfamily Wrote: Now, I’m skeptical of Yates solution, for sure. Forrest said that many had solved the first clue, so I have a hard time believing that “many” have done what Yates did to that poem.

many people have found the first clue but they didn’t know it

f said the "many" people who identified the correct first clue, didn't know it was correct

so this means that they were guessing. they guessed correctly, but they don't know they are/were correct

this then further means that whatever approach, or correct way of solving/deciphering the first clue, this isn't what the "many" have done

so your stated conclusion that the "many" would have had to have done the same thing as what I did to the poem, is not correct (hypothetically considering if my approach were correct)

on a side note, the first clue that i've deciphered, which personally i feel certain i am correct, is something that "many" could guess correctly, but not be sure about it

it is a specific geographic point known by most anyone involved in this hunt. and it could be pointed out on a map of the entire Rockies

and while it could be guessed at, because it is something that a lot of people could think of, and is nothing obscure or abstract, it would be difficult to be sure of it without extracting the clue identification from the poem.

i know if i said it out loud, many searchers would assume out of personal bias for what they think WWWH is, that it isn't correct


Many people “finding” the clue doesn’t mean they “identified” it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Mindy's blogs:

http://www.fennhotspot.com
http://www.myeverwonderland.blogspot.com
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06-13-2019, 04:47 PM,
#25
RE: The trouble with confidence...
(06-13-2019, 03:43 PM)Chris Yates Wrote:
(06-12-2019, 09:10 AM)crazyfamily Wrote: Now, I’m skeptical of Yates solution, for sure. Forrest said that many had solved the first clue, so I have a hard time believing that “many” have done what Yates did to that poem.

many people have found the first clue but they didn’t know it

f said the "many" people who identified the correct first clue, didn't know it was correct

so this means that they were guessing. they guessed correctly, but they don't know they are/were correct

this then further means that whatever approach, or correct way of solving/deciphering the first clue, this isn't what the "many" have done

so your stated conclusion that the "many" would have had to have done the same thing as what I did to the poem, is not correct (hypothetically considering if my approach were correct)

on a side note, the first clue that i've deciphered, which personally i feel certain i am correct, is something that "many" could guess correctly, but not be sure about it

it is a specific geographic point known by most anyone involved in this hunt. and it could be pointed out on a map of the entire Rockies

and while it could be guessed at, because it is something that a lot of people could think of, and is nothing obscure or abstract, it would be difficult to be sure of it without extracting the clue identification from the poem.

i know if i said it out loud, many searchers would assume out of personal bias for what they think WWWH is, that it isn't correct

Let's argue semantics for fun. Did he say location of the first clue or simply the clue itself?
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06-13-2019, 05:18 PM, (This post was last modified: 06-13-2019, 05:33 PM by Andrew Jef.)
#26
RE: The trouble with confidence...
(06-11-2019, 11:29 AM)astree Wrote:
(06-11-2019, 07:48 AM)crazyfamily Wrote: ...comes from the multiple and contradictory definitions of the word. In usual Fenn fashion, something seemingly so clear is actually quite cloudy. Forrest said that we don't know what many of our words mean, but sometimes knowing the meanings can be problematic.

The one who solves it will have ("true") confidence, but many that think they solved it will have ("false") confidence.

Knowing the difference between true and false looks only possible, in hindsight.

I encourage research.

(06-11-2019, 12:28 PM)crazyfamily Wrote:
(06-11-2019, 11:29 AM)astree Wrote: The one who solves it will have ("true") confidence, but many that think they solved it will have ("false") confidence.

Knowing the difference between true and false looks only possible, in hindsight.

Okay, but the problem therein is like the difference between a standard royal flush and a royal flush of all the same suit. There’s enough confidence to shirk responsibility and spend a bunch of money on a search, but would I hand over the deed to my house? No.

Is that the difference? Would you sign over the deed to your house on your solution?

(06-11-2019, 12:17 PM)fundamental design Wrote: Yes, that’s easy to figure out, like day 4 of anyone’s Chase. So, why constrict one’s self with focusing on multiple definitions of the word?

A key doesn’t have many multiple outcomes. It either unlocks a lock or it doesn’t.

Well, it’s the difference between knowing with certainty that you’re correct, the game setter being a con man, or the finder has information that was given confidentially.
razyfamily

Absolute certainty about the quality of one's solve comes with finding the TC. Anything else is likely to be based on hope, dreams, or fantasy.
You should have known this before reading this posting.

(06-12-2019, 06:04 PM)crazyfamily Wrote: A witty saying proves nothing.— Voltaire

razyfamily

I agree that talk is cheap.

In a court of law, a witty saying may legally/officially, to the satisfaction
of the court, prove something useful (not that "the law" is always perfect).
Reply
06-13-2019, 06:01 PM,
#27
The trouble with confidence...
(06-13-2019, 03:43 PM)Chris Yates Wrote:
(06-12-2019, 09:10 AM)crazyfamily Wrote: Now, I’m skeptical of Yates solution, for sure. Forrest said that many had solved the first clue, so I have a hard time believing that “many” have done what Yates did to that poem.

many people have found the first clue but they didn’t know it

f said the "many" people who identified the correct first clue, didn't know it was correct

so this means that they were guessing. they guessed correctly, but they don't know they are/were correct

this then further means that whatever approach, or correct way of solving/deciphering the first clue, this isn't what the "many" have done

so your stated conclusion that the "many" would have had to have done the same thing as what I did to the poem, is not correct (hypothetically considering if my approach were correct)

on a side note, the first clue that i've deciphered, which personally i feel certain i am correct, is something that "many" could guess correctly, but not be sure about it

it is a specific geographic point known by most anyone involved in this hunt. and it could be pointed out on a map of the entire Rockies

and while it could be guessed at, because it is something that a lot of people could think of, and is nothing obscure or abstract, it would be difficult to be sure of it without extracting the clue identification from the poem.

i know if i said it out loud, many searchers would assume out of personal bias for what they think WWWH is, that it isn't correct

Excellent response. However, I can say exactly the same about my solution, and I know I haven’t worked as hard. On the contrary, anyone could do what I’ve done and, in fact, many have guessed with the same results as my first clue solution.

This thread is about the problem with confidence and I’m interested to see your results.


razyfamily
Reply
06-13-2019, 07:52 PM,
#28
RE: The trouble with confidence...
(06-13-2019, 06:01 PM)crazyfamily Wrote: This thread is about the problem with confidence and I’m interested to see your results.


razyfamily

The problem is not with confidence; the problem is hubris. You can have great confidence in your solution, but to claim that you have solved the poem (even if you think you have) is hubris.
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