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The trouble with confidence...
06-13-2019, 03:43 PM, (This post was last modified: 06-13-2019, 03:47 PM by Chris Yates.)
#21
RE: The trouble with confidence...
(06-12-2019, 09:10 AM)crazyfamily Wrote: Now, I’m skeptical of Yates solution, for sure. Forrest said that many had solved the first clue, so I have a hard time believing that “many” have done what Yates did to that poem.

many people have found the first clue but they didn’t know it

f said the "many" people who identified the correct first clue, didn't know it was correct

so this means that they were guessing. they guessed correctly, but they don't know they are/were correct

this then further means that whatever approach, or correct way of solving/deciphering the first clue, this isn't what the "many" have done

so your stated conclusion that the "many" would have had to have done the same thing as what I did to the poem, is not correct (hypothetically considering if my approach were correct)

on a side note, the first clue that i've deciphered, which personally i feel certain i am correct, is something that "many" could guess correctly, but not be sure about it

it is a specific geographic point known by most anyone involved in this hunt. and it could be pointed out on a map of the entire Rockies

and while it could be guessed at, because it is something that a lot of people could think of, and is nothing obscure or abstract, it would be difficult to be sure of it without extracting the clue identification from the poem.

i know if i said it out loud, many searchers would assume out of personal bias for what they think WWWH is, that it isn't correct
Reply
06-13-2019, 04:18 PM,
#22
The trouble with confidence...
(06-13-2019, 03:43 PM)Chris Yates Wrote:
(06-12-2019, 09:10 AM)crazyfamily Wrote: Now, I’m skeptical of Yates solution, for sure. Forrest said that many had solved the first clue, so I have a hard time believing that “many” have done what Yates did to that poem.

many people have found the first clue but they didn’t know it

f said the "many" people who identified the correct first clue, didn't know it was correct

so this means that they were guessing. they guessed correctly, but they don't know they are/were correct

this then further means that whatever approach, or correct way of solving/deciphering the first clue, this isn't what the "many" have done

so your stated conclusion that the "many" would have had to have done the same thing as what I did to the poem, is not correct (hypothetically considering if my approach were correct)

on a side note, the first clue that i've deciphered, which personally i feel certain i am correct, is something that "many" could guess correctly, but not be sure about it

it is a specific geographic point known by most anyone involved in this hunt. and it could be pointed out on a map of the entire Rockies

and while it could be guessed at, because it is something that a lot of people could think of, and is nothing obscure or abstract, it would be difficult to be sure of it without extracting the clue identification from the poem.

i know if i said it out loud, many searchers would assume out of personal bias for what they think WWWH is, that it isn't correct


Many people “finding” the clue doesn’t mean they “identified” it.


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Reply
06-13-2019, 04:47 PM,
#23
RE: The trouble with confidence...
(06-13-2019, 03:43 PM)Chris Yates Wrote:
(06-12-2019, 09:10 AM)crazyfamily Wrote: Now, I’m skeptical of Yates solution, for sure. Forrest said that many had solved the first clue, so I have a hard time believing that “many” have done what Yates did to that poem.

many people have found the first clue but they didn’t know it

f said the "many" people who identified the correct first clue, didn't know it was correct

so this means that they were guessing. they guessed correctly, but they don't know they are/were correct

this then further means that whatever approach, or correct way of solving/deciphering the first clue, this isn't what the "many" have done

so your stated conclusion that the "many" would have had to have done the same thing as what I did to the poem, is not correct (hypothetically considering if my approach were correct)

on a side note, the first clue that i've deciphered, which personally i feel certain i am correct, is something that "many" could guess correctly, but not be sure about it

it is a specific geographic point known by most anyone involved in this hunt. and it could be pointed out on a map of the entire Rockies

and while it could be guessed at, because it is something that a lot of people could think of, and is nothing obscure or abstract, it would be difficult to be sure of it without extracting the clue identification from the poem.

i know if i said it out loud, many searchers would assume out of personal bias for what they think WWWH is, that it isn't correct

Let's argue semantics for fun. Did he say location of the first clue or simply the clue itself?
Reply
06-13-2019, 06:01 PM,
#24
The trouble with confidence...
(06-13-2019, 03:43 PM)Chris Yates Wrote:
(06-12-2019, 09:10 AM)crazyfamily Wrote: Now, I’m skeptical of Yates solution, for sure. Forrest said that many had solved the first clue, so I have a hard time believing that “many” have done what Yates did to that poem.

many people have found the first clue but they didn’t know it

f said the "many" people who identified the correct first clue, didn't know it was correct

so this means that they were guessing. they guessed correctly, but they don't know they are/were correct

this then further means that whatever approach, or correct way of solving/deciphering the first clue, this isn't what the "many" have done

so your stated conclusion that the "many" would have had to have done the same thing as what I did to the poem, is not correct (hypothetically considering if my approach were correct)

on a side note, the first clue that i've deciphered, which personally i feel certain i am correct, is something that "many" could guess correctly, but not be sure about it

it is a specific geographic point known by most anyone involved in this hunt. and it could be pointed out on a map of the entire Rockies

and while it could be guessed at, because it is something that a lot of people could think of, and is nothing obscure or abstract, it would be difficult to be sure of it without extracting the clue identification from the poem.

i know if i said it out loud, many searchers would assume out of personal bias for what they think WWWH is, that it isn't correct

Excellent response. However, I can say exactly the same about my solution, and I know I haven’t worked as hard. On the contrary, anyone could do what I’ve done and, in fact, many have guessed with the same results as my first clue solution.

This thread is about the problem with confidence and I’m interested to see your results.


razyfamily
Reply
06-13-2019, 07:52 PM,
#25
RE: The trouble with confidence...
(06-13-2019, 06:01 PM)crazyfamily Wrote: This thread is about the problem with confidence and I’m interested to see your results.


razyfamily

The problem is not with confidence; the problem is hubris. You can have great confidence in your solution, but to claim that you have solved the poem (even if you think you have) is hubris.
Reply


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