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Independence Day
04-01-2016, 12:35 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-01-2016, 01:17 PM by ThrillChaser.)
#1
Independence Day
There is a list of national independence days on wikipedia, containing 133 unique days of the year (day/month combinations), by my count.

There are 20 unique postmark dates in TTOTC, listed below. For the purpose of this post, I am ignoring the year, and only paying attention to the month and day of the postmark.

The chances that 20 unique days of the year, chosen at random, all fall on one of 133 national independence days, is, by my calculations, 0.0000000211%, or about 2 in one trillion (million million).

The accuracy of the math isn't really too important to me. There is room for fudge, I'm just using the math to give a ballpark for how unlikely this kind of coincidence is.

Here are 17 of the 20 postmarks:

p.54 Sunday, May 23, 1940

1568 – The Netherlands declare their independence from Spain.

p.44 Tuesday, June 03, 1930

2006 – The union of Serbia and Montenegro comes to an end with Montenegro's formal declaration of independence.

p.51,p.126 Friday, June 05

2006 – Serbia declares independence from the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro.

p.120 Tuesday, June 23, 1942

1991 – Moldova declares its independence.

p.34 Saturday, July 10, xxxx

1973 – The Bahamas gain full independence within the Commonwealth of Nations.

p.46 Wednesday, July 13, xxxx

1878 – Treaty of Berlin: the European powers redraw the map of the Balkans. Serbia, Montenegro and Romania become completely independent of the Ottoman empire.

p.118 Sunday, July 23, 1942

1992 – Abkhazia declares independence from Georgia.

p.64 Friday, August 08, 1947

1949 – Bhutan becomes independent.

p.140 Monday, August 15, 2005

1947 – India gains Independence from the British Indian Empire and joins the Commonwealth of Nations.

p.28 Wednesday, August 25, 1937

1825 – Uruguay declares its independence from Brazil.

p.22 Thursday, September 02, 1943

1945 – Vietnam declares its independence, forming the Democratic Republic of Vietnam.

p.68 Wednesday, September 07, 1949

1822 – Dom Pedro I declares Brazil independent from Portugal on the shores of the Ipiranga creek in São Paulo.

p.16 Wednesday, September 16, 1936

1975 – Papua New Guinea gains its independence from Australia.

p.58 Friday, September 20, 1946

1990 – South Ossetia declares its independence from Georgia. (NOTE: not on wikipedia list)

p.114 Monday, October 10, 1983

1970 – Fiji becomes independent.

p.42 Friday, October 18, xxxx

1991 – Azerbaijan declares independence from USSR.

p.72 Saturday, December 27

1949 – Indonesian National Revolution: The Netherlands officially recognizes Indonesian independence.

----

Note that 17 out of 20 dates each matching one of 133ish days is still very long odds. There are three other postmark dates on which I was able to find "Independence" events, but weren't in the Wikipedia list:

p.36 Friday, April 15 : 1783 - Ratification of Treaty of Paris by US Congress.
p.108 Sunday, April 28, 1974 : 1930 - First night baseball game in Independence, Kansas.
p.118 Friday, November 07, 1930 : 1835 - Signing of the Declaration of the People of Texas, pseudo-independence of Texas from Mexico.

I've been looking at postmarks for a few weeks now, and I've found some interesting things. Some of those things I would definitely categorize as hints. As for this independence day thing? I'm not really sure what this is. It's very interesting to me, and I'm surprised it took me weeks to identify it.

I know "Independence Pass" in Colorado was the final location of a previous public treasure hunt. And of course the Declaration of Independence was used in both the Beale Ciphers and the National Treasure movie. Maybe it's just a "shout out" for one or all of those. Has anyone else noticed this? Anyone have any thoughts about it?



Ricky posted a reply, I wasn't quick enough to capture it.

He said, paraphrasing, "Fenn did this on purpose." My response is that is exactly the response I wanted to hear, and I agree.

He asked, paraphrasing, "Why are you sharing this now, can't you get a solve out of this?"

My response is, that I just discovered this last night. That is to say, I had seen "independence days" on lists of events for a particular day on Wikipedia before, but I guess I just assumed that there were probably so many countries and so many independence days, that the likelihood that any given day of the year would fall on some independence day in history, somewhere, was very high. I didn't do the actual calculations until last night. That's why I shared today.

Can I get a solve out of this? My honest response to that is, "of course not." I'm no rookie here. Staring a postmarks for a few weeks and finding some common event is not going to get you closer to the treasure chest. This puzzle we're chasing after, is hard. Really, really, F'ing hard. Furthermore, none of this has anything to do with the poem (as far as I can tell). So given that this was relatively easy, and has nothing to do with the poem, it should be free discussion.

I believe it's very likely that someone, probably more than one, has discovered this before me, and they're holding it close to their chest.
Reply
04-01-2016, 02:46 PM,
#2
RE: Independence Day
Maybe none of those listed in your post are important, but what about just as reference to our own?...Independence Day...July 4...A national holiday...People travel/vacation...Many drive...Maybe the 'when'...Knowing the 'when', maybe the 'where' is easier to discover?...Research, research...re-compute, re-calculating...Another rabbit hole or a never-ending story?...
Reply
04-01-2016, 03:02 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-01-2016, 03:04 PM by Hammertime.)
#3
RE: Independence Day
ThrillChaser----This is good research. And it will take a person who can research these types of things to discover the new doors that open. That is why you have to earn the treasure. If you are not doing your homework on everything that catches your eye, then you are setting yourself up for failure. You have to be a hunter and a gatherer in this chase.
Thank you for the eye opener ThrillChaser.. Best post in a very long time!!

Just a reference, but the Wherewarmwatershalt.com website is just a picture of the US flag. Take it of leave it, but any info is good info. The theme might just be Free Will, or Independence.
Reply
04-01-2016, 03:53 PM,
#4
Independence Day
thanks for sharing.
[Image: f029a9a242990826a384c2aa8033afb8.jpg]
Reply
04-02-2016, 12:15 AM,
#5
RE: Independence Day


Reply
04-03-2016, 05:03 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-03-2016, 05:36 PM by ThrillChaser.)
#6
RE: Independence Day
(04-01-2016, 12:35 PM)ThrillChaser Wrote: The chances that 20 unique days of the year, chosen at random, all fall on one of 133 national independence days, is, by my calculations, 0.0000000211%, or about 2 in one trillion (million million).

I think my math and English translation of the percentage were wrong here. 0.0000000211% is 211 (not 2 as stated above) in one trillion, or about 1 in 5.7 billion. However, I now believe that is the number for choosing 21 unique days out of 133, not 20.

I believe the chances of choosing 20 days out of 133 is 0.000000064%, which is about 1 in 1.5 billion. Still an obviously deliberate choice of dates.

However, The Wolf pointed out on another thread that since I was only able to convincingly identify independence days for 17 out of 20 postmarks, that chances of doing that would be significantly less. I was operating under the assumption that it would not be significantly less, but I'm pretty sure The Wolf was right, and I was wrong. I did the math today and here's what I got:

Choosing 17 out of 20 from the set of 133 independence days, and 3 out of 20 from the set of the remaining 232 days, has a chance of 0.0006%, or about 1 in 166,666. Definitely a significant reduction in probability, and not nearly as convincing.

In my original "probability math" thread, I was using 37 as the upper limit of the number of days for which I did the probability calculation. If there were a total of 37 days, with 34 of them matching independence days, and 3 of them not, the chances of that would be 0.000000000016% or exactly one 1 in 6.25 trillion. We'd be back in the realm of "deliberate choice."

If only I could somewhere find 17 more days that land on independence days.

Well, I'm aware of a few more dates, anyway, from sources other than TTOTC postmarks.

Jan 05, 2005 - DN Ancient Leftovers - Postmark date

- 1909 – Colombia recognizes the independence of Panama.

Jan 18, 1968 - SB 96

- 1777 – Representatives of the New Hampshire Grants declare the independence of the Vermont Republic from Britain.

Jan 31, 1968 - SB 96

- 1968 – Nauru gains independence from Australia.

Feb 7, 1931 - OSFTC The World Lots its Darling - Earhart letter.

- 1974 – Grenada gains independence from the United Kingdom.

Mar 12, 1886 - OSFTC John Bullis

- 1968 – Mauritius achieves independence.

Jun 02, 1984 - OSFTC Jackie Kennedy

- 1946 – Birth of the Italian Republic: In a referendum, Italians vote to turn Italy from a monarchy into a Republic. After the referendum the king of Italy Umberto II di Savoia is exiled.

Jul 13, 1956 - TTOTC My War for Me

- 1878 – Treaty of Berlin: the European powers redraw the map of the Balkans. Serbia, Montenegro and Romania become completely independent of the Ottoman empire.

Sep 06, 1970 - SB 122

- 1968 – Swaziland becomes independent.

Sep 24 - SB 148

- 1973 – Guinea-Bissau declares its independence from Portugal.

Nov 1 , 1968 - TTOTC My War for Me (Flying in North stopped)

- 1918 – Western Ukraine gains its independence from the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Dec 20 - TTOTC My War for Me (floated down)

- 1835 – First signing of the Texas Declaration of Independence at Goliad, Texas.

Dec 22, 1968 - My War for Me (waterfall)

- 1974 – Grande Comore, Anjouan and Mohéli vote to become the independent nation of Comoros. Mayotte remains under French administration.

Dec 24 - My War for Me (freedom plane)

- 1951 – Libya becomes independent from Italy. Idris I is proclaimed King of Libya.

And some others with no or more questionable 'independence' associations:

Feb 10, 1968 - SB 96

- 1306 – In front of the high altar of Greyfriars Church in Dumfries, Robert the Bruce murders John Comyn, his leading political rival, sparking revolution in the Scottish Wars of Independence

Jun 09, 1986 - SB 112

Nothing!?



So that's 13 more independence days, and 2 more with no or questionable independence references, making the total 30 days that fall on independence days, and 5 that are questionable or don't.

I didn't verify that all of these independence days fall on one of the 133 unique days from the Wikipedia document, so lets fudge that number a bit and say there are 150 possible independence days.

Choosing 30 days that match those 150 independence days, and 5 that do not, according to my calculations, has a chance of 0.00000137%, or 137 in 10 billion, or 1 in 72 million. This puts us back in the realm of obviously deliberate.

If anyone find other dates, or independence events on the no/questionable dates, please post them here.
Reply
04-03-2016, 09:46 PM,
#7
RE: Independence Day
(04-03-2016, 05:03 PM)ThrillChaser Wrote:
(04-01-2016, 12:35 PM)ThrillChaser Wrote: The chances that 20 unique days of the year, chosen at random, all fall on one of 133 national independence days, is, by my calculations, 0.0000000211%, or about 2 in one trillion (million million).

I think my math and English translation of the percentage were wrong here. 0.0000000211% is 211 (not 2 as stated above) in one trillion, or about 1 in 5.7 billion. However, I now believe that is the number for choosing 21 unique days out of 133, not 20.

I believe the chances of choosing 20 days out of 133 is 0.000000064%, which is about 1 in 1.5 billion. Still an obviously deliberate choice of dates.

Do some non-math on this and you will see most of Fenn's days are in the warmer months and so are the independence days (people like to revolt during the summer)
In fact, it's hard to pick a non-independence day between May and September.

I picked 10 random days and 9 were independence days. It's not proof of anything, but if Fenn was picking independence days then he wouldn't have picked the wrong days and it would have 35 out of 35 (or whatever the total was.)
Reply
04-04-2016, 12:53 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-04-2016, 01:00 AM by ThrillChaser.)
#8
RE: Independence Day
(04-03-2016, 09:46 PM)Indy Wrote: Do some non-math on this and you will see most of Fenn's days are in the warmer months and so are the independence days (people like to revolt during the summer)
In fact, it's hard to pick a non-independence day between May and September.

Thanks for bringing that up again. I'll be honest I have no idea how to do that using non-math, so I'll use more math. Here's a table showing the unique independence days that exist per month, and the probability of any given day in a month being an independence day (based solely on Wikipedia independence day data).

[Image: FBBJ53X.png]

This shows that there are a few months in the summer which have a higher probability than average of any day being an independence day, with August topping out at 61.29% (19 of 31 days).

Here's a list of some month ranges, since you mentioned May-Sept, and I added a few others.

[Image: snKm50w.png]

In general, July, August, September and October are the big offenders (although February is also high). Out of the 35 dates listed, if they are more or less evenly distributed throughout the year, you'd expect to see about 33.33% of them (11.66 or about 12) in those four months. The actual count of dates in those four months is 15, or about 43%. So it does seem like the distribution of dates in TTOTC postmarks, text, scrapbooks, and other sources is biased towards those months.

There's probably an opportunity for more math here, to get a better number than 36.44% (133 independence days) or 41.09% (150 independence days) as the average probability of any day in a year being an independence day, using the distribution of independence days per month, and/or the actual distribution of days that are in TTOTC and other sources, and I may do that at some point.

But for now, I'll share that if 50% the days of a year (183) are independence days, I calculate the probability of 30 of 35 unique randomly chosen days being independence days as .0004165% or about one in 240,000.

That doesn't meet the "one in million" threshold that I'd like to see - which sits at 47.4% or 173 days being independence days, resulting in a probability of .0000866% or 1 in 1.15 million.

I welcome any other thoughts, concerns, checking of my work, or suggestions on how to do this better or in a more meaningful way.
Reply
04-04-2016, 06:58 AM,
#9
RE: Independence Day
(04-04-2016, 12:53 AM)ThrillChaser Wrote:
(04-03-2016, 09:46 PM)Indy Wrote: Do some non-math on this and you will see most of Fenn's days are in the warmer months and so are the independence days (people like to revolt during the summer)
In fact, it's hard to pick a non-independence day between May and September.

Thanks for bringing that up again. I'll be honest I have no idea how to do that using non-math, so I'll use more math. Here's a table showing the unique independence days that exist per month, and the probability of any given day in a month being an independence day (based solely on Wikipedia independence day data).

[Image: FBBJ53X.png]

This shows that there are a few months in the summer which have a higher probability than average of any day being an independence day, with August topping out at 61.29% (19 of 31 days).

Here's a list of some month ranges, since you mentioned May-Sept, and I added a few others.

[Image: snKm50w.png]

In general, July, August, September and October are the big offenders (although February is also high). Out of the 35 dates listed, if they are more or less evenly distributed throughout the year, you'd expect to see about 33.33% of them (11.66 or about 12) in those four months. The actual count of dates in those four months is 15, or about 43%. So it does seem like the distribution of dates in TTOTC postmarks, text, scrapbooks, and other sources is biased towards those months.

There's probably an opportunity for more math here, to get a better number than 36.44% (133 independence days) or 41.09% (150 independence days) as the average probability of any day in a year being an independence day, using the distribution of independence days per month, and/or the actual distribution of days that are in TTOTC and other sources, and I may do that at some point.

But for now, I'll share that if 50% the days of a year (183) are independence days, I calculate the probability of 30 of 35 unique randomly chosen days being independence days as .0004165% or about one in 240,000.

That doesn't meet the "one in million" threshold that I'd like to see - which sits at 47.4% or 173 days being independence days, resulting in a probability of .0000866% or 1 in 1.15 million.

I welcome any other thoughts, concerns, checking of my work, or suggestions on how to do this better or in a more meaningful way.

Nice. I like the thoroughness. There's certainly a few avenues to pursue if an independence day is the hint. There are a lot of July 4th creeks and other symbols that relate to the day. But will it be possible to separate the noise from the real clues for that date.
Reply
04-04-2016, 01:46 PM,
#10
RE: Independence Day
I love this.

What if it matters, because Fenn hid the treasure on Independence Day? He always said he did it in July or August, and maybe this gives us the exact day? One theory I have relies on the position of the sun, and this makes it very important. What if you have to see the hidey space on the same day of the year that he hid it? What if the sun has to be the blaze, but is only accurate on or near that day?
Reply


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