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On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
09-05-2016, 06:49 PM,
#1
On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
Ok new searchers this is for you...just some of my thoughts and experiences that might help you out.

I'll try to keep this part short. Heard about Fenn's fiasco when Randy's body was found. Read the blogs voraciously and looked at maps trying to fit the poem to a spot. Reasoned that in 6 years, people must know something or have some of the poem solved. Read almost every theory that I could find. Made a determination on WWWH (more of a concept) and found a physical place that fit. Found numerous other geographical and physical features in the area that fit the poem and some of the other theories and things people were talking about online. Structure that formed a glyph, Y's, peace signs, ?'s, omegas, etc. Started anagramming the poem. Amazingly enough the poem anagrams pointed right at my very spot. I anagrammed out directions, road names, altitudes, you name it. My mind was firing on all cylinders, I had browser windows open from left to right and each full of tabs on various subjects. I was praising the genius of Fenn for constructing such an amazing and wonderfully intricate poem. It was almost like an epiphany, and I was very close to walking out the door and driving 1300 miles. Then I said WTF is going on...how could I solve something that tens of thousands of people haven't been able to in 6 years. So I looked at my work and saw, oh I never bothered with these two lines, oh I have a bunch of letters left over here. Oh I had an A and O left over on that line so I assumed it was an alpha and omega and confirming my anagram was correct, but look on the next line I didn't have an A and O left over. And the more I looked, the more I realized I didn't have shit figured out. I saw what I wanted to see and made the outcome agree with my preconception. Set aside your pride, how can you (and I'm including myself in that you) be so much smarter than every one of the tens of thousands of people who have spent over five years plus trying to figure this out?

Some math...assume each line of the poem has around 20 letters (its not the actual average but it will do for our purposes here). With 2 letters the number of combinations is 2. Ex. AB can be AB or BA. With 20 letters the number of permutations is 2.43 E18 (thats 2.43 times 10 to the 18th power). Now the vast majority of those permutations will not produce legible sentences, but you will still be left with thousands upon thousands of options. And thats just one line, theres 23 more to go. Plus your looking for 9 clues, do you anagram 2 lines at a time? What happens to the leftovers? If the poem is to be 'solved' by anagramming, think about the math for a moment. Your chances of making a correct solve are 1 in a number so vast it is larger than the estimated number of atoms in the universe. Do you really think that is possible? You have a far far better chance of winning the lottery multiple times in a row than making that solve.

But what if Fenn combined several layers of information and then anagrammed it all together and by using clues to find the other layers we can strip away and isolate the relevant information about the chest? I took a few minutes to make an example verse for you. I hope you are wise enough to understand that given enough time I could have made the sentences perfectly coherent and made them rhyme, but this is just a quick example, I'm not going to spend 15 years on it.

So I start with my directions... THE CHEST IS AT MY HOUSE
Then I make up a list of colors: ORANGE BROWN RED BLUE GREEN YELLOW
Then fish: TROUT SALMON CATFISH CRAPPIE STURGEON BASS
Now I combine each of the layers and anagram them, for example THE + ORANGE + TROUT combine to form line 1 and I'll anagram that to TOUR TO THE RANGE. So following that method my "poem" or verse becomes the following:

tour to the range
went blossom ranch
first aces hid
beat up replica
go merge sun entry
by owl house seals

Now I'm going to add a few more 'tricks' to the poem. I'll homophone a couple words, throw in some miscellaneous punctuation, and capitalize a word so you think its a proper name.

Tour two the range.
Went Blossom ranch.
First aces hid
Beat up replica.
Go merge son in tree,
By owl house seals.

Now I write an autobiography which includes some mundane tales from my life that aren't really worth sharing, but hey I'm a narcissistic kind of guy and I include within a chapter on my love of painting (colors) and my love of fishing.

Now I tell the people in my town, "Hey there's a big bag of money hidden somewhere in this town. My poem has 6 clues to the location of the money and if you want to buy this book its got some hints that will help you locate it.

Even though I've kept it extremely simple, can you understand how hard it would be to solve such a problem? Mathematically, the odds are overwhelmingly against you. Even this example, which has a chance of providing confirmation (by understanding the rules used to make the poem)
would be extremely difficult if you did not understand the 'rules' used to create it.

My point is, if the poem is to be solved by Anagramming every line, you will never solve it. I'm not saying that absolutely no anagramming is involved and I'm not being defeatist or trying to discourage you, just trying to help you understand the math stacked against you. If you want to expend time an energy on solving this puzzle, try another path or way of interpreting the poem.

And probably the most important piece of advice. Learn to recognize who is trying to 'help' you here and who isn't. I constantly see the same people popping into threads to do nothing but spew verbal and mental diarrhea all over a noobie. I'm talking about the lowlifes who post stuff like "take the third letter of every word in the second line plus the second word of the line below and it spells 'Excelsior'." Are these people sincerely trying to help you but just happen to be imbeciles? Perhaps. Maybe they get their jollies mind f*&$king you? More Likely. Why would you 'thank someone for their thoughts' when what they actually did was take a steaming dump all over your face? These people never post to try to help you reason, they never post to try to help you think about concepts. They only drop in to leave a load of gibberish and/or to encourage you to waste time by clicking on some link. Learn to tune them out or you will get nowhere.
_____________________
I want this to be a fair fight. I'll shoot him in the back myself. That's the Code of the West!

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09-05-2016, 07:13 PM,
#2
RE: On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
Wow, that is the best post I have seen in a long time.
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09-05-2016, 07:24 PM,
#3
RE: On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
I don't think I have ever read such nonsense in all my life.but fair play, good luck. You are gunna need it
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09-05-2016, 07:41 PM,
#4
On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
Knight, how is the title of the thread and your post related? Just curious about it, not critical of it.


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Knight, how is the title of the thread and your post related? Just curious about it, not critical of it.


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09-05-2016, 07:54 PM,
#5
RE: On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
(09-05-2016, 07:41 PM)Kpro Wrote: Knight, how is the title of the thread and your post related? Just curious about it, not critical of it.


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Knight, how is the title of the thread and your post related? Just curious about it, not critical of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well the post is on Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility just like it says. If the syntax of the title confuses you, it might be because it is somewhat archaic but nonetheless the post is about the 4 things mentioned in the title.

I discuss the enormous mathematical odds against anagramming a solve and the fallacy of confirmation bias as it relates to anagrams. I discuss the need for humility which may save a brand new person some time or hasty travel, as my example pointed out, why would one think they could do something in two days that 50000 people could not do in 5 years.

Everyone does Anagrams, its the simplest, most basic concept and something probably every single person tried when they first started out. And I gave an example of how the rules used in the construction of a verse might themselves be used to confirm the final outcome, assuming one could discern the rules in the first place.
_____________________
I want this to be a fair fight. I'll shoot him in the back myself. That's the Code of the West!

Reply
09-05-2016, 08:07 PM,
#6
RE: On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
@knighterrant

Well, so much for keeping it short....LOL!! Just joking. IMHO, I don't understand why searchers want to make this as hard as they can for themselves, I just don't understand it. I guess because I know that Fenn is a practical man, and I am a practical man too...maybe that's why I figured it out in just 5 hours. Mind you, I had to do my research, and lots of it, but it was all there...nothing hidden, nothing sneaky, nothing misleading...just plain old common horse sense will lead you to it. He said to read the poem over and over again, and analyze it...and that's exactly what I did before I even heard that quote from him. I started at 11pm at night, and had my solve by 4am the next morning.
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09-05-2016, 08:13 PM,
#7
RE: On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
(09-05-2016, 07:46 PM)nmc Wrote:
(09-05-2016, 07:24 PM)mrmagicarovrumrebel Wrote: I don't think I have ever read such nonsense in all my life.but fair play, good luck. You are gunna need it

That's exactly how most of us view your drivel.

I'm cool with that
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09-05-2016, 08:18 PM, (This post was last modified: 09-05-2016, 08:28 PM by Indy.)
#8
RE: On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
(09-05-2016, 08:07 PM)Gordon Lightfoot Wrote: @knighterrant

Well, so much for keeping it short....LOL!! Just joking. IMHO, I don't understand why searchers want to make this as hard as they can for themselves, I just don't understand it. I guess because I know that Fenn is a practical man, and I am a practical man too...maybe that's why I figured it out in just 5 hours. Mind you, I had to do my research, and lots of it, but it was all there...nothing hidden, nothing sneaky, nothing misleading...just plain old common horse sense will lead you to it. He said to read the poem over and over again, and analyze it...and that's exactly what I did before I even heard that quote from him. I started at 11pm at night, and had my solve by 4am the next morning.

I had you beat by two hours. My first solve only took the time to fly home from Denver to Chicago. There was only one problem with that solution - it was wrong.
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09-05-2016, 08:19 PM,
#9
On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
Knight - thanks for the response, I see your point until the last paragraph but fair enough.

You should rename it "knight and mrmags advice thread" .... Lol



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09-05-2016, 08:22 PM,
#10
RE: On Math, Anagrams, Confirmation, and Humility
(09-05-2016, 08:07 PM)Gordon Lightfoot Wrote: @knighterrant

Well, so much for keeping it short....LOL!! Just joking. IMHO, I don't understand why searchers want to make this as hard as they can for themselves, I just don't understand it. I guess because I know that Fenn is a practical man, and I am a practical man too...maybe that's why I figured it out in just 5 hours. Mind you, I had to do my research, and lots of it, but it was all there...nothing hidden, nothing sneaky, nothing misleading...just plain old common horse sense will lead you to it. He said to read the poem over and over again, and analyze it...and that's exactly what I did before I even heard that quote from him. I started at 11pm at night, and had my solve by 4am the next morning.

GL -- I think you missed the point about humility!

Smile
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