Lets Assume. ..

[SidnCharley]

Let’s assume for a minute that you grew up in a remote corner of the globe never having heard of Forrest Fenn or his secreted treasure.  Then, just before he passes, your grandfather hands you a worn out, folded up piece of paper and says, “I hope you have as much fun as I did. Now go get the gold!”



After carefully unfolding the yellow paper made brittle by time, your eyes begin soaking up the 24 rhythmic lines which end with this promise “I give you title to the gold.”  Just beneath the final line, scrawled in your grandfather’s shaky script, you see the phrase “All you need is the poem.”



Of course this situation is completely hypothetical, but imagine if it were real and there was no possible way to get more information or know anything else about the chase.  This means you don’t know it’s north of Santa Fe; you don’t know it’s in the Rocky Mountains; you don’t know it’s above 5,000 ft or below  10,200; you don’t know it’s not in Idaho or Utah (or Canada) and you don’t know it’s not associated with any structure.  Also, there are no books (TTOTC, TFTW) to read, no blogs to stalk, no other way to get more information than contained in those 24 simple lines. 



Would you ever be able to find the treasure’s precise location?  And, just out of curiosity, does this thought exercise help you look at the poem in a different way?

[SidnCharley]

Thinking about the poem this way really helps me put it all into perspective and makes me see how valuable Forrest's "non-clues" really are.

[Guest]

Funny you should ask, I only look at the poem that way. From the start, not having either book, only knowing of 2 clues from the today show { that only confirmed } Rockies and 5000' I thought 10,000 years down the line and ask if I found the poem how would try and solve it. with the 1st and 2nd stanza... all those 'non-clues' were answered. History.

[mdavis19]

<div class="bbcode_quote_head">Quote:
<b>Quote from SidnCharley on November 12, 2013, 3:43 pm</b>

This means you don’t know it’s north of Santa Fe; you don’t know it’s in the Rocky Mountains; you don’t know it’s above 5,000 ft or below  10,200; you don’t know it’s not in Idaho or Utah (or Canada) and you don’t know it’s not associated with any structure.  Also, there are no books (TTOTC, TFTW) to read, no blogs to stalk, no other way to get more information than contained in those 24 simple lines. 



Would you ever be able to find the treasure’s precise location?
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No, I'd never find the treasure. The poem alone would lead me to Oklahoma. I think it would lead a lot of people there. The "In the Rocky Mountains" and "North of Santa Fe" bonus clues are absolutely necessary, at least for me.



mdavis19

[John Brown]

<div class="bbcode_quote_head">Quote:
<b>Quote from SidnCharley on November 12, 2013, 3:54 pm</b>

Thinking about the poem this way really helps me put it all into perspective and makes me see how valuable Forrest's "non-clues" really are.
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I've concluded some time ago that Forrest wants it found. In my opinion the only non-clue that was really not a clue was the 5,000' one and someone might convince me there was a little piece of some mountain north of SF that was under 5,000' somewhere, in which case I would agree that the 5,000' statement actually contained information.

What about outhouses and grave yards?



Here's how I think about it. We each carry two "probability maps" which is a color coded map of the probability that the treasure is located at each point in the search area. One of those maps is our personal probability map based on our personal theory of the chest. How concentrated the probability is on that map depends on how far along we are in our search. The other map we never really have but we have some vague idea of where people have looked over time and if we're rational then we allow some probability that the chest could be in those areas. I'll call that one the "searcher's average map". When Fenn said don't be a potty tipper the searcher's average map barely changed because there presumably were not many potty tippers to begin with. But the personal probability maps of the potty tippers underwent huge changes. If they stayed in the chase then all of a sudden the bright red hotspots at all outhouses went cold as they started working on new theories. Same thing for those who were digging up graves in cemeteries. I think the changes in the searcher's average map were essentially negligible for both bathrooms and graveyards because there were presumably not many people pursuing those theories. Then came not in Idaho and Utah. Huge changes for quite a few searcher's personal probability maps, enough that it would have had s significant impact on the searcher's average map.



I would imagine that the "anywhere in the world" version of the chase was completely insoluble. The little tidbits that Fenn feeds us <i>might</i> be corrections to render an insoluble riddle soluble. Sorry for the verbosity. Hope all is well!

[SidnCharley]

@John Brown, all is, indeed, well. Thanks.



I agree many searchers experienced a change in paradigm when Utah and Idaho were nixed, myself included. When narrowing down your starting place from the entire planet, to just a few states, the task becomes, at least, fathomable.

[Tim Nobody]

Looking at the solution that way is why I said that WWWH is the CD about 2 years ago. WWWH could also be the Rocky Mountains. If you have to start anywhere in the world the Rocky Mountains are one big WWWH.

When Forrest gave out the hint that it was in the Rocky Mountains he gave us the solution to WWWH maybe.

[Desertphile]

Without knowing "In the mountains north of Santa Fe," I would never be able to figure out the clues in the poem.

[SidnCharley]

Well, if we can take Forrest at his word and the poem will, in fact, lead a person to the chest without knowing all the other clues, then there is obviously something not-so-simple about those 24 seemingly simple lines.

[Pooka]

Exactly, SC! That is why the poem is solvable without any of the extra clues. Assuming Forrest hid the treasure, his poem is solvable at all and all you need is the poem, then none of the extra clues are necessary. That in itself to me is a huge clue about how to decipher the information within the poem. Not simple indeed.