THE HINTS- VITAL TO SUCCESS

[Beavertooth]

e has confirmed a significant amount (too many to count) have got first clue correct and many have the first two, but that doesn't do them any good.

Your phrasing suggests "got the first clue correct" should mean "solved the first clue." I don't think Fenn ever said this.

Determining which lines of the poem are "the first clue" doesn't mean you have solved that clue.

I believe the poem can and does define WWWH to a very high level of probability, so I think the Powerball comparison by mm is too extreme. However, I will admit that hints in TTOTC gave me confidence in solving that clue before I figured out how to solve for it using just the poem. I now believe you can get to the unique WWWH with just the poem alone. Whether it may take longer, I can't say. It depends on how you approach it. I used the long way around. The short way is easier, if you know how to attack the poem.

Once you have WWWH, I think your chances improve to 3,000:1 or perhaps to 1,000:1 -- much better than Powerball. I think some of the following clues are tougher to solve than Fenn lets on. Even with the 9th clue "solved" I think your odds are still in the 100:1 range or higher.