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the rankings
03-04-2018, 08:02 PM, (This post was last modified: 03-04-2018, 08:42 PM by John Brown.)
#1
the rankings
The search for Randy was daunting. There were roughly 100,000 acres I thought he could conceivably have been in. To organize my search I enumerated the routes to civilization and then ranked them according to my gut sense of the probability that he took a given route and how hard it would be to find him if he did take that route. On Feb 10 2016 this strategy put me and my posse within 30' of him. Alas we didn't find him that day. It was pure luck when he was found 5 months later. Never-the-less, we were very close. Moreover, at the end of that day, the guys I was with said "We have to come back in the summer and search the tamarisk by boat. It's too dense to see through." Five months later he was found in the tamarisk. Thus I claim the strategy itself was correct.

I've done the same thing for the chase: ranked the counties. The chase is easier because actual numbers can be obtained. The ranking for the search for Randy was done by gut sense of what was hard, what was easy, what was probable, and what was improbable, more than anything else.

Here are the top 10 counties with their scores.

Rank SCORE
1 32
2 24 (Park WY)
3 22 (Fremont WY)
4 21 (Park MT)
5 20
6 19
7 18
7 18
7 18
10 17

This approach is strongly resistant to confirmation bias as it treats the 156 counties considered as a priori equals, thus circumnavigating making an endless stream of posts in which one is ever-confirming the same result over and over that was originally found via divination. One need not torture the poem and books until they offer up confessions. If you are constructing complex stories out of the stories in the book you are on the WRONG TRACK. Unit deviations in the score are not significant. One is looking for gaps in the score such as the difference of 8 between the first and second place counties. The bigger the gap the more significant the deviation. Fenn is quite clearly calling attention to #1. Indeed it has been a very popular search destination over the years. Most of the facts that point to #1 county have not been mentioned previously, nor will they be now.

The scoring method is not unique. The one I used here was very crude and easy to implement. I've used two others as well and in all cases the number 1 slot did not change, which suggests that the result is robust to vagaries in the definition of the score.
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03-04-2018, 08:56 PM,
#2
RE: the rankings
So whats the game here John?

Name your #1 or don't John, it doesn't matter. Without it this post is a nothing burger, akin to any one of a hundred different varieties of 'i know where it is but you don't' or 'i know how to solve it and you don't' posts. Same animal, just presented in a slicker package, with a side of tech savvy.

We know you're a smart guy, it was apparent to me when I read your posts. I've been told you're a rocket scientist by trade.

Your approach may indeed be strongly resistant to confirmation bias, but you had to make assumptions in formulating your algorithm. Assumptions that may or may not be valid. I hope your algorithim is more complex or intelligently designed than simply adding value to a county that contains a geographical feature or place name relevant to Fenn's poem, treasure, book stories, etc.
_____________________
I want this to be a fair fight. I'll shoot him in the back myself. That's the Code of the West!

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03-04-2018, 09:34 PM,
#3
the rankings
I resemble that remark, John.

Why did the people of San Lazaro paint bird images on their pottery?

Forrest found five keys among the rooms and speculates that there must be five lock boxes to go with those keys. When they find them, they will rewrite the history of the Southwest.

Archeologists said kachinas didn’t exist in pre-contact Pueblo life, yet Forrest found just such items at his pre-contact Pueblo, and history is amended to reflect his discovery.

These are things that occupy Forrest’s mind. Mathematical odds, formulas and ciphers don’t seem to be his thing. That’s just my opinion. Besides, my approach is more fun, and that’s what this is about.


razyfamily
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03-04-2018, 09:38 PM,
#4
RE: the rankings
(03-04-2018, 09:34 PM)crazyfamily Wrote: I resemble that remark, John.

Why did the people of San Lazaro paint bird images on their pottery?

Forrest found five keys among the rooms and speculates that there must be five lock boxes to go with those keys. When they find them, they will rewrite the history of the Southwest.

Archeologists said kachinas didn’t exist in pre-contact Pueblo life, yet Forrest found just such items at his pre-contact Pueblo, and history is amended to reflect his discovery.

These are things that occupy Forrest’s mind. Mathematical odds, formulas and ciphers don’t seem to be his thing. That’s just my opinion. Besides, my approach is more fun, and that’s what this is about.


razyfamily

I'm quite sure Forrest didn't much consider odds, but he did have to make a solvable puzzle. That requires something rare. I don't think odds occupied Randy's mind either. Still we were searching within 30' of him. I don't think odds occupied the minds of the crews of many sunken ships over the centuries. Yet professional treasure hunters use those odds to their profit.
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03-04-2018, 10:16 PM,
#5
the rankings
If you want to consider that humans basically do and think the same things whether they were born in 1300 or 1930, then you could form an opinion that would be loosely based on odds. Most people spent their time trying to figure out what the hell we are doing here. Even Forrest dedicated the largest portion of his book to the same question. Early scholars fabricated elaborate stories to explain our existence, and will do everything including kill to convince others that they’re right.

Forrest said to not look anywhere a 79 or 80 year old man couldn’t go carrying 20 pounds. Why do people hike for miles in the wilderness searching?

Odds are that this thing is 200 feet from the road.


razyfamily
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03-04-2018, 10:56 PM, (This post was last modified: 03-04-2018, 11:48 PM by knighterrant.)
#6
RE: the rankings
Rio Arriba is it...I don't care what the computer told John. That's my gut anyways..

I like John, I didn't mean to sound critical of him. He's a good guy. I just don't understand why you can't just list your number one...it's not like its really going to help anyone.

and crazyfamily is probably correct about its location...imo one of the greatest misconceptions about the chase, and the reason it has eluded discovery is the idea that its in some remote wilderness fishing hole.

Fenn tells that story about the stone over and over for a reason. It's going to be someplace ordinary that will leave people scratching their heads. Why that place is important to him is for him alone to know. People search for a place that they themselves find spectacular and so pass right on by without a second thought.

Second greatest misconception: the poem is an amazing construct, the puzzle of the ages...it's probably fairly simple and straightforward. IMO, Fenn has used his intimate knowledge of human behavior and thinking to hustle everyone and use their own brainpower to his advantage. Not being able to solve the poem, most people assume the poem is difficult and complex. If it is complex, it must have been designed by a genius. They then double down and go balls to the wall trying to find some elaborate, intricate design which does not in fact exist. The end result, searchers as perpetual rabbithole diggers and Fenn's treasure untouched.
_____________________
I want this to be a fair fight. I'll shoot him in the back myself. That's the Code of the West!

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03-05-2018, 12:52 AM,
#7
RE: the rankings
(03-04-2018, 10:56 PM)knighterrant Wrote: Rio Arriba is it...I don't care what the computer told John. That's my gut anyways..

I like John, I didn't mean to sound critical of him. He's a good guy. I just don't understand why you can't just list your number one...it's not like its really going to help anyone.

and crazyfamily is probably correct about its location...imo one of the greatest misconceptions about the chase, and the reason it has eluded discovery is the idea that its in some remote wilderness fishing hole.

Fenn tells that story about the stone over and over for a reason. It's going to be someplace ordinary that will leave people scratching their heads. Why that place is important to him is for him alone to know. People search for a place that they themselves find spectacular and so pass right on by without a second thought.

Second greatest misconception: the poem is an amazing construct, the puzzle of the ages...it's probably fairly simple and straightforward. IMO, Fenn has used his intimate knowledge of human behavior and thinking to hustle everyone and use their own brainpower to his advantage. Not being able to solve the poem, most people assume the poem is difficult and complex. If it is complex, it must have been designed by a genius. They then double down and go balls to the wall trying to find some elaborate, intricate design which does not in fact exist. The end result, searchers as perpetual rabbithole diggers and Fenn's treasure untouched.

Great post. I agree with it. The poem is fairly simple and straightforward. It uses the techniques that Fenn has said he used. Knowing the county - well that's nice, it can help you focus. Got a long way to go from there. Gotta get past the twist. That's what keeps it hid.

Maybe I'll see you out there John & knighterrant. Good luck.
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03-05-2018, 08:07 AM,
#8
RE: the rankings
Oh, if only I can get $1 for every time John Brown brings up his searching of Randy.
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03-05-2018, 08:47 AM,
#9
RE: the rankings
(03-05-2018, 08:07 AM)filmguy Wrote: Oh, if only I can get $1 for every time John Brown brings up his searching of Randy.

I like John Brown and the fact that he helped search for Randy but I gotta admit I love some good stings too and this made me laugh for a good 109 seconds....Wink
_____________________
I want this to be a fair fight. I'll shoot him in the back myself. That's the Code of the West!

Reply
03-05-2018, 11:10 AM,
#10
RE: the rankings
(03-05-2018, 08:07 AM)filmguy Wrote: Oh, if only I can get $1 for every time John Brown brings up his searching of Randy.

I don't recall seeing you out there Toby.
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